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The Psychology of a Recession - Positive Thinking vs. Fear of the Worst

Bobby McFerrin's classic hit "Don't worry, Be Happy," a mantra for the me-mindset of the 80's, might find new air time today as retailers encourage consumers to put aside their fears and begin purchasing again.

The levels of optimism, and particularly economic optimism, vary worldwide, according to the Cotton Incorporated and Cotton Council International 2010 Global Lifestyle Monitor Survey. In Japan, only about 13% of consumers say they are very or somewhat optimistic about their country's economy, compared to 77% of Indians, 43% of Americans, and 47% of Chinese consumers.

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"Financial crises take a large toll not only on a person's personal finances, but on their behavior as well. Coping mechanisms include shopping in lower tier stores and eating out less."

The financial toll of a recession is evident; its impact on consumers' well-being, however, is only beginning to be addressed. A new report in Psychological Science in the Public Interest, a journal of the Association for Psychological Science, recently examined how individuals behave in stock and credit markets.

The PSPI report found, unsurprisingly, that consumer confidence affects spending and saving. Coping mechanisms include shopping in lower-tier stores and eating out less.

Around the world, countries with growing economies are optimistic. Meanwhile, pessimism runs deep in areas like Japan, which was ravaged by the "Lost Decade," the aftermath of the asset price bubble collapse, and in the U.S., whose economy continues to under-perform even as the "Great Recession" has technically ended.

Japan could end up being one of the biggest victims of the global economic crisis, writes Gerhard Fourie in Brands & Branding. Fourie is a senior manager at Nissan Motor Company in Japan.

He explains that Japan's unemployment is at a 40-year high (5%), while GDP is at a 35-year low and contracting at a rate never recorded before. Furthermore, Japan's wholesale prices dropped for the first time in five years, and in 2009, Japan experienced the first trade deficit in 28 years. Real estate prices are at 35% off their peak and far more in some areas.

"Not only is the contraction dramatic, it is also much worse than the decline experienced in the United States or Europe (in some of the indices three times worse than the beleaguered U.S. economy)," Fouri states. "Corporate Japan responded to the crisis by slashing staff levels, cutting salaries and overtime, as well as suspending production at numerous plants. Consumers responded too, by dramatically cutting back on spending, delaying large purchases and changing consumption patterns."

Global Monitor data show 22% of Japanese consumers are "very pessimistic" about their personal financial situation, while 40% are "somewhat pessimistic." This dour outlook has kept 48% of Japanese from purchasing items or services, including dining out (77%), vacations (75%), entertainment (71%), clothing (65%) and fashion accessories (63%).

Click to Enlarge Regarding the U.S. economy, 21% of consumers are "somewhat pessimistic," while just 9% are "very pessimistic," according to the Cotton Incorporated Lifestyle Monitor� survey. U.S. consumers feel significantly better about their own personal financial situation, as more than half (53%) feel "very or somewhat optimistic" about their own finances, and just 13% are "somewhat pessimistic" and 4% are "very pessimistic."

When U.S. consumers were asked to name factors that contribute to a pessimistic attitude for their personal finances, most cited the general economy (63%), the cost of oil and gas (46%), the unemployment rate (37%), a decrease in income (35%), their personal debt situation (32%), the housing market (22%) and fear of losing their job (20%), according to Monitor data.

Meanwhile, China's economy continues to expand, and analysts have been touting it as an incredible market engine. But its citizens do not share this optimism, despite the fact that 38% of Chinese consumers say they have more money to spend on apparel compared to last year, while 44% have the same amount, according to Global Monitor data. Yet, just 47% say they are somewhat or very optimistic about the Chinese economy, and 45% of those surveyed say their outlook on their own financial situation has kept them from purchasing certain items, including fashion accessories (56%) and apparel (39%).

Chinese citizens have seen prices, especially food prices � a component of the consumer price index � rise dramatically. While inflation is officially 7.5% in the past year, many suspect the real figure is quite higher. For example, consumers are paying double the cost for many items due to spring droughts and subsequent summer floods. Meanwhile, a real estate bubble has pushed housing prices far out of reach for the average person.

India falls into the category of an optimistic country with a strong economy. Its economy is expected to expand by 8.5% this year, and its growth rate could overtake China's by 2013, if not before. Some economists think India's 1.2 billion population will grow faster than any other developed country. More than 50% of its population is below the age of 25 and more than 65% is younger than 35. It is expected that in 2020, the average age of an Indian will be 29 years, compared to 37 in China and 48 in Japan. The Global Lifestyle Monitor finds India's shoppers are more optimistic than China's, even though its shopping statistics are similar to those of Chinese shoppers: 35% say they have more to spend on apparel this year, 17% say they have less, and 48% say they have the same amount.

Just 17% of India's respondents say they have less to spend on apparel this year, compared to 33% of Japanese. In the U.S., 63% of consumers say their outlook on their personal finances has kept them from purchasing certain items, including apparel (31%) shoes (24%) and fashion accessories (24%).

What causes this glum outlook? Psychologist James Pennebaker at the University of Texas at Austin suggests 24-hour media coverage often sensationalizes families that are struggling financially, have lost their jobs or cannot pay for gas, which exacerbates an overall negativity in consumer outlooks.

His research has shown that the active process of trying to make sense out of traumatic events can help individuals recover from them, and that a conscious effort to explain rather than sensationalize economic crises is not only an important journalistic duty, but also essential to U.S. national mental health.

And healthy minds lead the way to a healthy economy.